Petraeus Report: Prediction Error

My last post, on Friday, gave some predictions for Gen. Petraeus’ report to Congress and their responses. It is too early to gauge my accuracy on Congress, but the initial pontification before the testimony was indicative that I will be mostly right about Congress when they get around to saying something. I didn’t listen to the post-pontification of Congress or the media.

I expected, but was depressed by, the opening political salvos of partisanship. I’ve said a couple of times that the people want Congress (and the White House) to find a bipartisan solution to Iraq. So much for hope.

I was dead wrong about beginning troop withdrawals this year. Petraeus is ready to return a Marine brigade to the states this year. I am not sure how to read that except an acknowledgement that Congress or voters are making their wishes felt. But it does seem to be a big concession that I am sure will impact the current operations.

He also sort of promised to start a phased drawdown to pre-Surge levels by the end of 2008, but caveated that with an admonition that each stage must be reviewed first. His first review in 2008 pretty much fits the schedule I predicted. I agree that each drawdown phase should be reviewed before committing since we can’t predict those situation at this early date, but it is going to come across as another one of those “we just need another few months” refrains from the White House. Congress will most likely jump on that one.

Which leads me to a reason for this post. The Administration has been the most secretive and non-communicative one in my 43 years as a voter. It’s even worse, far worse, than the Nixon years. This is probably the primary source of America’s frustration with this Presidency. It seems truly congenital even with the neocons mostly gone. At a time when our troops are finally making progress (maybe slow and uneven, but still progress), and at a time when our diplomatic corps in Iraq is no longer staffed with incompetent cronies but straight-talking professionals, the story is not reaching America.

The White House and DOD have botched all the good news. Gen. Petraeus did touch on the current operations but I think, unless you’ve been following the operations, it would have gone over your head. I don’t see how the General could have done better since he had to assume the political listeners had some knowledge of the operations, and it would have been difficult to overcome the months just since February while the White House and DOD botched getting the word out.