Verizon Might Lose My DSL

have a painful and frustrating history with Verizon. Two years ago I rejoiced that DLS was finally available at my location and I could drop the totally infuriating DirecWay.

Wringing Out the Line

switched from Sprint to Verizon for land line and requested DSL. I got the new land line and DSL about one month later. You see, it takes one month for them to "wring out" the line and make sure it works. Does anyone really believe in today's world that it could possibly take more than a couple of days, and those two days only to get a work order to the technician.

I had DSL services for three days and it went dead. It turns out that Verizon had switched my land line without a proper release from Sprint, whatever that means (actually a company that had just bought a Sprint territory). This, they carefully explained to me, required that they "wring out" the line again. On a line that had already worked? I griped and they rushed and I got my DSL back in three weeks. BTW, I had no dial-up during this period. Not a good start with someone that wants my business.

Disconnect in Four Days

ne year later, I scheduled web payment of my Verizon bill but apparently was distracted and didn't hit the final submit payments button. My mistake. But my only notice from Verizon was a letter received on a Friday afternoon requiring payment by the next Tuesday. Even web payment wouldn't arrive in time, nor would snail mail. I made a web payment anyway and then doubled up by using my credit card to pay by telephone. Now - get this. In order to use my own credit card on Verizon's telephone payment costs me between $15 and $20 (I forgot the exact amount). And that was an automated system.

How Verizon Does Business

made the mistake but Verizon has my credit report and they could have an automated system that check when payments are late and evaluates whether the customer is a risk. If so, they would have found that I had absolutely no late payments in the 15 years that the credit bureaus maintain (it has been more than 25 years for me). I griped and Verizon rescinded the fee. I asked if there was a mistake and that I should have received earlier warning. No definitive answer. Frustrated, I asked if this was the standard way they do business. The answer was definitive - "yes, that's the way we do business."

No Dial Tone

ow for today. A week ago last Friday, I lost my dial tone. No dial tone a the box outside the house. I placed a service order by cell phone to their other automated system for losing service orders. They couldn't send a technician for five days. I don't know. Maybe I'm confused, but I thought Verizon was a telephone company. Five days?

Five days passed and no technician showed up. After 6PM, I placed a work order via their web site (note that my DSL still worked). It was scheduled for the next day even though I had no human to gripe to. No technician ever showed up. However, my phone magically had a dial tone that morning. Shortly after that, someone associated with Verizon called on the land line to ask if our phone was working. My wife was sarcastic.

I had noticed that the phone line coming down the telephone pole to a box there (the line goes underground from that box to the one at my house). It was flapping in the breeze and I suspected that might be part of the problem. I returned the call to that local Verizon person. A lady answered by saying, "Hello." She didn't say Verizon or some-Verizon-subcontractor, just "Hello." I noted the flapping wire problem and she said she'd get someone on it. That was six days ago and it's still flapping.

No Dial Tone, Again --- And Slow DSL

lost the dial tone again about one week later, last Thursday. I called the automated system and asked for an agent as soon as the system could understand the difficult word agent. All I could get was another promise of a technician in another - you guessed it - 5 days. I couldn't explain that this was a second event and I couldn't talk to a supervisor. I couldn't even add anything about that flapping wire.

I had noticed that my Internet was slower on Saturday but didn't get around to checking it. My download speed was about half of normal and half of what other Verizon customers in my zip code were getting. I took ten valium and called Verizon for DSL trouble. I was connected to that wonderful country that speaks native Vulcan but we call it India.

The tech support was quite good but they couldn't do anything. They promised that I would get full speed back when I got a dial tone. The supervisor also passed on through the phone guy that I would probably lose my DSL before the dial tone was repaired.

Verizon Wants to be Your Communications Center

o I expect a technician to show up or otherwise repair both the dial tone and the DSL? Given Verizon's history, it's not promising.

I constantly get ads to get my DLS, land line, cell phone, and DirecTV (thankfully I've had that for 11 years and not through Verizon). Anyone who falls for this package and misses one payment will lose all communication with outside world for a period of time to be determined or not determined by Verizon, after payments of course.

Two Reasons to be an Independent

As a one time Republican, and what used to be called Conservative, I've thought about a post on why I finally gave up on the Republican Party. I haven't gotten around to drafting that yet, but I just received two letters that reminded me of some reasons for leaving that party.

Both letters are from the Republican National Committee. The first letter reminded me how important it is to keep the Democrats out of office. Let me extract some quotes.

"But I am not writing to you today only to seek your support for our Party this fall."

No, the request for money was in the other letter received on the same day.

"Our opponents rely on the financial backing of leftist billionaires...., radical groups..., Hollywood elites, and Big Labor...

If the terrorists don't get you, then the leftist billionaires, radical groups, Hollywood elites, and Big Labor will destroy you! Scare tactics perfected since Reagan. This is insulting and I hope we've come to a time when the average voter sees through the use of scare tactics to hide the lack of a party platform. Also, we just lost a famous Hollywood elite - Charlton Heston.

"They (Democrats) promised "reforms" last November, but what have they delivered?

• Groundless partisan investigations of the Bush Administration;"
• A budget with the largest tax hike in American history;
• Conditions on funding for our troops fighting to protect us and winning the War on Terror
• Parliamentary procedure games instead of meaningful legislation; and,
• Unofficial attempts at backdoor diplomacy with tyrants.

Groundless investigations? The facts are there. There is more than enough justification to proceed with those investigations which, by the war are hardly partisan since responsible Republicans are also asking for those investigations. There is also sufficient evidence to begin impeachment hearings but none of us really want another partisan circus.

Tax hike: There is no tax hike proposed. Instead the Democrats want the temporary tax cuts to expire as the Republicans promised and wrote into the bills at the time they were passed. Again this is fact, but Republicans would want you to forget that the tax cuts were temporary. They do not want you to hear that temporary tax cuts can help, but long-term/permanent tax cuts damage the economy, especially increasing unemployment, in a few short years. Most economists agree that the our economy is hurting and that the Iraq War is a very small part of the cause. Tax cuts are the primary cause.

War on Terror: Democrats have never put conditions on fighting the War on Terror; they have attempted to put conditions of funding troops in Iraq which responds to the wishes of about 70% of Americans.

Parliament procedures: The rise of crippling parliamentary procedures occurred mostly during the Clinton and Bush II periods. If one wants to consider meaningful legislation, I suggest you look at about any Congress other than those serving while Bush II reigned. Backdoor diplomacy must refer to Pelosi's trips, possibly even Carter's. The moral here is that anyone who talks to evildoers are committing treason. All administrations since 1945 have talked to and negotiated with the USSR. Nixon began serious dialogue with evildoer China. The list goes on. Any President who does not negotiate with the enemy is courting war. Talking is good. Talking is not equal to agreeing. Negotiating is essential.

"The Democrats' lineup of liberal presidential candidates ... promises of punitive taxation, massive spending, abandonment of our tough national security policies,, and far-reaching intrusion into the lives and liberty of the American people."

Those bulleted points, in a nutshell, would have been the platform of the Republican Party of old. These terms are now a very good description of the Republican Party today, with the exception of punitive taxation. They like to call Democrats as "tax and spend" which has some truth to it. I would call the Republicans of today as "spend like no Democrat ever conceived possible, but make our children and grandchildren pay for it."

The second letter asks for $1,000, or amounts smaller to $25. I chose an even smaller amount of $0. They wonder if I have "abandoned the Republican Party." Maybe they know?

Then the letter goes on to list diatribe similar to or exactly the same as the first letter. They also wonder "Have you given up?" No, I haven't. I'm not a Democrat and don't think I could ever buy their platform in toto. I hope the moderate Republicans retain a measure of the integrity and true financial conservatism of the Grand OLD Party and that they may once again control the party. But for now moderate Republicans and myself do not feel welcome in a party that's gone off the deep end.

I believe that this is my first really angry post. I am angry at a Party that has rubbed its traditional values in crap. I am angry at a Party that claims budgetary responsibility but has outspent previous administrations with glee. I am angry at a Party that once really believed in less government into private lives, but now spies on us and tries to push a narrow-minded morality into our homes. I am angry at a Party that once participated in the world rather than ignoring the Geneva Conventions, ridiculing once friendly nations because they disagreed on a war that has proven them right, and moving us away from an inherently moral superiority.

I have one more angry post coming but it will not be about war or politics. It's about Verizon.

Congress Needs an Overhaul, Not Repair

What's wrong with Congress? Let me count the ways. I used the term "bent but not broken" in describing the condition of our Army and Marine Corps. When it comes to Congress, I think we can call it "bent, maybe broken, and certainly not serving the people in any meaningful way."

began this study of the problems of Congress as I usually start new projects, by underestimating the enormity of project. I began with a concern that Congress had allowed the Executive Branch to assume unconstitutional powers that led to a Presidency that is out of control. I am finding (or re-discovering) that this is only the tip of the iceberg. Congress is incapable of doing most of the things for which they were elected.

The Web is filled with sites dedicated to fixing some part of the Congressional mess. Most have analyzed some problems and proposed viable solutions. A few go to the extreme of proposing that we vote out all incumbents. The idea is that, if we vote out all incumbents, the new Congressmen and Congresswomen will understand that their job futures depend on the American voter. I don't personally buy the approach, but it may, in the end, be the only workable approach to a failed Congress.

ost of these sites, in my opinion, do not address the broad range of Congress's problems, with the exception of one new site which I'll mention in a later post. The following are the major topic areas I've collected from a lot of web pages:

• The budget process has become nonfunctional.
• Committees and subcommittees have proliferated. They overlap, discuss the same issues, call the same witnesses, and rarely reach decisions.
• Some committees and subcommittees have the job of adding to the budget while claiming they are reducing it.
• Because of the proliferation of committees and subcommittees, few if any Congressmen know where any element of the budget stands at any time, let alone knowing the condition of the entire budget.
• It is impossible for citizens to follow the budget process.
• Earmarks can be added without other Congressmen or citizens knowing who added them. Thus, the budget grows without accountability.
• The budget cycle is never on schedule, sometimes even resulting in approval after the spending has started.
• News/media report on individual members of Congress, but rarely report on the workings of Congress as a legislative body.
• The seniority system died in 1975 (a good thing), but it leaves us with 100 individual prima donnas in the Senate and 435 in the House. Each vies for publicity and exposure to their constituents.
• With media-type news that has little ability or interest in reporting on complex issues, the media gravitates to the sound bites of Congressional prima donnas, but never tells us about what's going on in Congress.
• Issues that become publicized are voted on along strict Party lines. This is partly due to the rise of the power of the Republican Party (now being emulated by the Democratic Party) and partly due to the above prima donna effect wherein our Congressmen seek publicity by being partisan. Result: nothing gets done.
• Related to the above issue is the hidden control of Congress by PACs. Partisan voting is also due to the money influence of PACs. Depending on your political, financial, or moral leanings, some PACs are good, some are bad, but all enjoy hidden relationships with the peoples' representatives. Since it is obvious that those we elect dance to the tune of powers other than the voter, we should, at the very least, know who is calling the dance.
• Social Security and, especially, Medicare are in trouble and approaching crisis. We've known this for years. Congress has also known it for years. Yet nothing has been done in the last three Administrations or the last six or seven Congresses. The time for action is running out yet Congress only promises action in the next Congress, again and again.
• Congress should hold government agencies accountable for the funds Congress gives to them. Yet waste abounds and Congress can do nothing.
• Some Congressmen are corrupt, a very few are very corrupt.

ut the biggest problem isn't listed above. And that is, if Congress is to change, then only Congress can make that change. Catch-22. There are some Congressmen that do want change, but most do not. New Congressmen spend so much time trying to learn the baroque workings of the place, that once they get used to it, they don't want to change it.

I listed personal corruption last because I do not believe that it is a major problem. Even if corruption is worse than I believe, all the other issues must be addressed before we could effectively root out much corruption.

I've see a couple of sites that say that today, more than at any other time in the recent past, Americans are ready to make Congress change. I agree, but how do we go about it? In later posts I will get into a little more depth on some of the major issues. Mostly I will try to summarize the issues and point the reader to sites that cover the issues in more depth. I will present the various solutions that others have proposed and again point to those sites. I might even propose my own solutions.

Grand Canyon 1, 9x10 colored pencil, 2000

Miscellaneous Items

I promised some discussion and research on the "what's wrong with Congress" topic and it will probably be a few days until you see my first post on the topic. Those few of you who followed my 2007 posts know that I tend to research a topic, gather my notes into a somewhat cohesive thought pattern, and then post/inform as I go. Shooting from the hip is not my style. I like to roll things around in my mind for a while.

I've collected information on Congress' problems that go back to 1984 analyses. There are some threads that you see running through different analyses and over the years, but there are also a lot of ways of looking at the problem. I need to first sort all that into some useful groupings. In the meantime, this post covers some miscellaneous items.

First, I plan on showing off my too-many hobbies from time to time. One hobby is painting and here's one selected at random, and completed in 1999.

Biloxi Porch, watercolor, 9x12, 1999, signature blurred on purpose

No Update on the Iraq Situation

I have nothing to add to the situation in Iraq. It is confusing. Operations in and around Basra and Sadr City are apparently ongoing or renewed. I question the size or progress of both operations. In my first post of this year, I referenced some knowledgeable reporters who said the operations were directed at the Mahdi Army. This was bolstered by actions in the Iraqi Parliament and statements by the Grand Ayatollah Sistani to marginalize al-Sadr.

But al-Sadr has responded with only lukewarm threats to end the truce. I have to suspect that either the operations are having little impact on the Mahdi Army or al Sadr is actually too weak to do anything other than threaten. It's too early to tell.

Web Research Tools

The Internet is a playground for this 71-year-old guy who's always been addicted to learning new things and to research. My first PC was in 1980, a TRS-80. By 1982, I was on the Internet before the web existed using the absurdly expensive Compuserve. Finding good Internet research tools is not easy. I've used several shareware and freeware clipping/organizer tools over the years and none have satisfied me until I started using Firefox.

There are several web clipping plugins for Firefox. Google Notebook and Dappad are two useful items but I quit using them. My longtime favorite is Scrapbook (with Multi-Scrapbook enabled). Scrapbook can clip (and save) any portion or all of a web page and the files into folders or categories you designate. Once saved you can then edit the pages to remove unwanted frames or sections, add inline or sticky notes, and highlight text. Scrapbook is extremely powerful. My only problem has been with accessing the files from a network drive. I often get corrupted files from my laptop.

Recently I've used EverNote. EverNote is kind of odd. You can categorize clips, but they're called tags, which makes sense. Notes can be selected by single or multiple tags and then scrolled like a very long tape. Scrolling uses two scrolls sliders, one for moving quickly from one clip to the next, and another slider for more precise scrolling. The second slider controls the speed of scrolling. It takes some getting used to. You can also search the clips with keywords.

Evernote has a free and a paid version but they recently offered a free invitation to the paid version. The free version is nice enough; I found their automatic categories (image, etc., and "this week," "this month," etc.) get in the way. The paid version removes those automatic categories and adds online synchronization of the database to their server (plus some other nice features if you use a graphics pad). Visit Evernote and see if the free invitation is still offered.

I use Scrapbook for research results that I intend to keep for some time and access infrequently. It has more sophisticated structuring and it is easier to find things you've forgotten about. I use Evernote for blogging research and other short-term research. I find Evernote is easier to use "on the fly" but I'm not sure why it seems that way to me.

I tried the Opera browser and I really like it. Compared to Firefox or IE7, Opera opens like a speed demon. Opera has a built-in note taker and I found it not to be very useful for extensive research. Since neither Scrapbook or Evernote are adapted to Opera, I stayed with Firefox.

Congressional Conundrum

from VOID www.voidnow.com (Vote Out Incumbents Democracy)

Only 20 % of Americans approve

of the job

Congress is doing.

*******************************

Yet we will send virtually the same

Congressmen and Congresswomen

Back to Try Again.

Presidential elections always generate more interest and more press than Congressional elections, but I propose that Congressional elections are as important. The Bush term is coming to an end, but the unconstitutional powers that he assumed will remain for the next president. Whether we elect a Republican or Democrat, Congress must reclaim its constitutional authority and give us, once again, a government of, by, and for the people.

Oval Office Emperor

Recounting all the events that have made the Bush Administration a tragedy of historic measure no longer serves any purpose. However, we should acknowledge that this Administration has the power to ignore the overwhelming desires of the American people and the Congress we elected to right the Administration's wrongs. Our inability to restore the nation's honor and return to the principles on which the nation was founded is more than frustrating. Our President has the power to stonewall every effort to change our course and he has used the power repeatedly.

The problem may not end in January 2008 with a new president. Power is a subtle, but powerful, corrupter, and it may well corrupt the next president whether Republican or Democrat, whether man or woman. Our founders realized this and established a government of checks and balances. Congress was designed to be a check on the Executive and Congress simply has not performed that responsibility in the last eight years, maybe more.

Flailing, Failing Congress

e are unhappy with Congress. But we keep sending the same folks back to the same place. Walt Kelly put the right words into one of his characters in the 1950/60s comic strip, Pogo (I don't remember if it was Pogo or Alfred who said it), "We have met the enemy and they are us." For you younger folks, that quote was at a time when Pogo was poking sarcastic fun at the far Right Wingers of the time, the John Birch Society. He called them the Jack Acid Society. This was also a time of Senator McCarthy and his Anti-Communist Hearings, both the Birch Society and McCarthy attempted to silence opposition with smear tactics and calls to false patriotism. Sounds like the past eight years.

We, the American voter, must share the responsibility, but we may be partially forgiven because we had little useful information from the media/press. These folks basically forgot about responsible reporting and, instead, concentrated on entertainment "news" and accepted Administration press releases as truth.

There are many in the news business today who realize those errors and they are trying to separate the press from the media and bring back some honesty and integrity. There is now a recognition on their part that the entertainment media is incompatible with responsible news reporting. There are many facet to the problems and their solutions, but check out Nieman Watchdog in my News Blog Links and PressThink for discussions of the issues.

Congress has, from time to time, given the President exceptional powers. That is not the problem. But when Congress either gives those exceptional powers, or when the Executive assumes unconstitutional powers, Congress has the additional responsibility to monitor the use of those powers and to advise and consent, or advise and not consent.

Congress rolled over and played dead while Bush waged a wrong war, hamstrung environmental and energy regulation and in general promoted a big business policy at the expense of the people. Congress cheered for destructive tax cuts for corporations and the very, very wealthy and they assisted in selling those tax cuts by giving trivial cuts to the middle class and poor, and by selling permanent cuts as temporary.

Congress is now trying to perform their constitutional powers and responsibilities and they are failing. It is now too late to do much about Bush. But the acquisition of exceptional powers in the Executive do not naturally die with the next President, whether Republican or Democrat. Congress must not allow this to continue.

Congressional Conundrum - Polling Oddities

ongress has an absurdly low approval rating. Here's a sampling from PollingReport.com.

The table at PollingReport is actually longer and shows more poll results, but the they are consistent with what I've extracted here. Two-thirds or more of Americans disapprove of Congress as a whole group. Ten to fifteen percent are unsure. Only about 20% approve.

When it comes to individual members of Congress, the figures are not quite as bad (also taken from PollingReport.com). In February, PEW Research asked, "Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress reelected in the upcoming congressional election, or not?" 49% said NO (36% yes, 15% not sure). The answers from polls taken late in 2007 were more negative.

Americans are very unhappy with Congress, but only somewhat unhappy with members of Congress.

There's certainly some disconnected thinking here. Since Congress is composed of nothing more the members, is it possible for a collection of so-so members to perform so badly? An explanation must lie in voter perceptions.

The conundrum. According to VOID (Vote Out Incumbents Democracy), 92% of all Senate incumbents will be reelected. In the House it's 98%. In other words, nearly all members of Congress will be reelected yet the job approval for Congress is around 20%.

Voters have a different perception for their own Senator or Representative than for Congressmen in general. Going back to the PollingReport.com, here's the way the questions were paired:

"Would you like to see your representative in Congress be reelected in the upcoming congressional election, or not?"

YES	NO
60 %	22 %

"Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress reelected in the upcoming congressional election, or not?"

YES	NO
36 %	49 %

Fox News posed a similar question in November 07. The responses for 'own representative' totaled 50% Yes, 29% N0. Pretty close to the same as above. On the second question for 'all representatives' it was 26% Yes, 45% No. Again very similar answers.

Let me summarize those statistics in my own words:

	YES?
Is Congress doing a good job?	20 %
Are Congressmen doing a good job?	36 %
Do you like your Congressman (reelect)?	92+ %

So, Congress is performing poorly. Our own Congressmen are good guys or women. Then the problem is because of all the other Congressmen. That doesn't make sense and I would hope that anyone reading this would agree.

What's Wrong

here are only two other explanations. One is that our own Congressmen really aren't very good, but I doubt that. Most Congressmen have good intentions and are at least as competent as the average citizen. (The VOID site that I quoted in the opening has some interesting ideas, but voting out all incumbents responds to the frustration, not the problem.)

A second explanation lies in the way Congressmen interact and work together as a Congress, or do not interact and do not work together. We tend to call this partisanship, but that term evokes a vision of Republicans against Democrats. Congressional partisanship involves more than just political parties.

We do not like partisanship in our government. We want actions and solutions. But what if Congressional partisanship is really the partisanship in the American electorate being acted out on a national stage? I think so and I intend to discuss it in future posts.

Maliki, "There ain't room enough in this town for al Sadr and me."

In my last post I closed with, "I've thought some about the recent Maliki moves against Basra militias. I'm not sure what all this means."

I'm still not sure what all this fighting in Basra and now Sadr City means but some reporters who are close to the action have some useful info and some plausible ideas.

The Quiet Time

Let me back up a little to some concerns I had last year. I was impressed by the Surge but I also wondered how much of the reduction in violence was also due to other factors. One important factor was Muqtada al-Sadr's truce. No one ever doubted that he and his Mahdi Army still wanted to drive the American occupiers out: they just decided not to shoot at the time, probably realizing that they weren't quite ready to take on the US forces. But little press was given to the extent of the rivalry between Maliki and al-Sadr.

Now fast forward a few months. Al Qaeda has been reduced to a dangerous annoyance. The Sunnis are happy with America as long as we give them arms and money, and let them "form a government from the bottom up." The central government is still dominated by Shias, with a little Kurd help. al-Sadr's truce has kept things relatively quiet in the predominantly Shia areas from Sadr City south through Basra to the Gulf. Fighting in and around Basra has been intense and the Brits basically abandoned the city, but that fighting is mostly between factions who would like to control oil fields (60% of Iraqi oil).

Maliki Government Moves on Mahdi Army

In late March, the Iraqi Army moved on Basra. Malcom Nance at the Small Wars Journal has an interesting post, "The Basrah Gambit – Defining Moment for Iraq or the Jaysh al-Mahdi?" Malcom reminds us of the misinformation put out by MNF and Iraqi press reps. The Iraqi Army's push to Basra would appear to be an effort to control various dissidents, but local Mahdi militia elements see this as a direct attack only against them. Malcom agrees.

Malcom very clearly tells us just why the operations in Basra were the opening salvos of this new Maliki versus al-Sadr rivalry. The Basra operation began on 25 March and by the time of Malcom's post (31 March), the Iraqi Army had not actually entered Basra when another cease fire was declared. It looks like a defeat for the Iraqi Army since they had overwhelming numbers but couldn't penetrate Mahdi strongholds. The Mahdis apparently had a lot of casualties but the Iraqi Army had some 1300 defectors. The media-press made sure we knew about the defectors as an indicator of the Iraqi Army's incompetence. I'm not so sure. I don't think the number is that large and I would suspect many of those were troubled by this being a brother-against-brother kind of battle. Since this was also the first test of the new army, it would also be a good time to get rid of deadwood. What's not generally reported is that the Iraqi Army took control of several other southern cities. Still, al-Sadr came out looking like the political winner.

The Pentagon to put another spin on the Basra action by claiming the southern citizens were fed up with all the violence and that the Iraqi Army was going to help them out. The Pentagon said, "I think at this early stage, it looks as though it is a by-product of the success of the surge." The Surge was never anywhere near Basra. Those citizens on the receiving end of the Iraqi Army see this as simply the Maliki Army against the al-Sadr militia.

Nance also informs us of how our forces have been destroying some Mahdi Army units by claiming that they were rogue elements (Anti-Iraqi Forces) who were not following the truce. This allowed the US to whittle away at al-Sadr's militia without breaking the truce. That action may be a prelude to the action that's moved back to Baghdad - specifically Sadr City.

Badr Brigade, Iran Proxy

I rarely see the media-press refer to the Badr Brigade but they are a major player. The Badr Brigade was formed in opposition to Saddam Hussein. They formed into a viable military force (of perhaps 10,000 strong) during the Iran-Iraq War. They were based in Iran and didn't return to Iraq until we toppled Saddam. The Brigade has participated fully in the Iraqi government and the elections, and they are closely allied with Maliki. Both the Badr Brigade and the Mahdi Army accept help from Iran, but this probably tells us less about support for Iran than it tells us that Iran has much better Islamic diplomatic skills than the US.

Badr Brigade members make up a significant part of the Iraqi Army and the national police. They have been implicated in atrocities against both Sunnis and Shias. They have certainly committed acts against followers of al-Sadr. See Joe Klein's article, "Too Many Kagans, Too Little Knowledge" at Swampland for more info on how our government perpetuates myths about the warring factions in Iraq.

Can't Take Basra? Try Sadr City

Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal has two articles of perspective on Sadr City. In "Ayatollah Sistani on the Mahdi Army" Bill reports on the Grand Ayatollah Sistani's support of the central government and his call for the Mahdi Army to disband. Also important is that Bill connects this push to isolate al Sadr with the recent Basra actions. Noteworthy is that al Sadr's supporters in the Iraqi Parliament are also being isolated.

In a later article, "Iraqi government: "We will continue until we secure Sadr City"," Roggio describes the extent of the operation in and around Sadr City. He reports that there are nine MNF brigades, 3 Iraqi Army and one National Police brigades in the area. MNF force is close to half our total Iraq force. Stryker units, usually the advance strike units, are already engaged with Mahdi units as are air support and Predator units.

Why Now?

With all this action occurring suspiciously just before Gen. Petraeus' testimony and during the presidential campaign, rumors on timing are everywhere. Malcom Nance (see above Nance article) lists a few which I'll just summarize (note that Nance's article is of 31 March):

1. Success in Basra would give General Petraeus yet another opportunity to claim before Congress that he needs an additional six months.
2. Could also play well for Senator John McCain's pro-Iraqi War stance.
3. May have also been an attempt at a Hail Mary pass originating from the White House and carried to Iraq in Cheney's recent visit. The purpose could have been to benefit the Republican cause and to salvage Bush's legacy.

Since the Iraqi Army did little in Basra, none of the above possible benefits became real. However I believe, again if any of the above are true, the push against Sadr City is even more important to the Administration and Gen. Petraeus (and Maliki). An interesting side note on Item 2 above is that McCain might have telegraphed the Basra operation before it happened. On his return to the US, McCain said, “Today America and its allies, stand on the precipice of winning a major victory against radical Islamic extremism.” Could be. Or maybe McCain prefers precipices to turning corners.

My Note

It's easy to read evil intent in the orchestrated press briefings by this most secretive, shadow Bush Administration. It's also easy to make light of any show of progress since most Bush progress claims have devolved into mini-Mission-Accomplished charades. But none of the reporters I've referenced in this post have noted that, in addition to Basra and Sadr City being the first major action of their new army, it is also the first major political action taken taken by the Iraqi government. Am I reading too much into this?

Yes, there warring factions and even personal vendettas involved. But the US has demanded a political solution. For that to happen, someone has to win. We hope that all parties can win but that is not likely. Our best bet is to help the Maliki government root out those who oppose a workable central government. Finally we may be seeing some political movement from the Iraqi government.

Once the Mahdi Army is defeated, then they might take on the more important smaller factions. The remaining question is, Can the Iraqi Army (with MNF's help) prevail against the Mahdi?

Sometimes Right, Sometimes Wrong

I reviewed my initial posts which began in June 07 and ended November 07. My original intent back in June was to introduce counterinsurgency operations (COIN) theory, and the Army Marines field manual FM 3-24, to non-military readers. When I quit posting, I was averaging around 70 readers a day, each staying an average of about 4 to 7 minutes. I even had a handful of subscribers, but I had absolutely no comments (one tiny exception). Two veteran bloggers told me there is a critical mass of 500 or more readers before folks start to comment - has something to do with no one wanting to be the first to comment, I guess. But it sure was hard to continue with no feedback.

I stopped in November because of a couple of health problems but I did not resume when the health issues quickly ended. I discovered that I had little more to say on COIN or FM 3-24. Not much had changed in those six months of posting.

I've reviewed those posting I was wrong in some instances.

• I supported the administration in taking a belligerent tone toward Iran. I believed that scaring them was our only option. I now think that was irrational.
• I favored a soft partition of Iraq. That was not so wrong as it has become impossible to even consider it as a U.S. policy position. Instead I think we are facing some kind of partition through internal civil wars. Whether soft or hard partition, or a return to another brutal dictatorship may depend on the outcomes of several civil wars within Iraq.

My main objection to COIN operations was in FM 3-24's troop estimates. We were, and still are, far short of those requirements in Iraq and even further short of the requirements for just about any other country where we might have to conduct COIN.

I tried to come up with some metrics to measure the success of COIN operations and the Surge. I don't think I was very successful. But I did note that violence levels on civilians had not been reduced as much as the press had trumpeted. Late in 2007, I said that violence in Baghdad had been reduced to mid-2006 levels and that elsewhere in Iraq the violence was about the same. Sadly, that too has not changed much. Now entering our sixth year of war, we can only claim we've reduced violence to a level of about two years ago. In the meantime we've created or allowed Baghdad to become more ghettoized and we've made no inroads into the Shiite militias. The relative peace in Baghdad may be only a prelude to inter-ghetto conflicts as the U.S. reduces troop levels.

I expressed concern that Iraq was dangerously stressing our troops, both regular and reserve component. That concern is now surfacing as a major campaign issue, but I doubt that most Americans realize just how vulnerable we are. We are certainly less safe than on the eve of the Iraqi invasion. The recent tour reductions from 15 to 12 months will only prevent the Iraq/Afghanistan stress from increasing (and that won't be effective for another year), but it will takes years to reform, supply, and train units.

The Surge and our COIN operations have one overarching goal and that is to get the Iraqi government to agree on its form and to take control of the country. FM 3-24 notes that the ultimate goal is a political solution and Gen. Petraeus also tout a political solution.

Is there any progress toward a central government? We really don't know since no press reports from anyone tell us anything of importance about what's going on inside the Iraqi government. We know they have real problems coming together and the process is difficult. We know most of their important issues. Yet we know of no progress on any issue. Given that the Bush Administration touts every success, even when there isn't one, and that they've touted no successes or progress in this case, I assume there is no progress. With no political progress and no other tools than our military, why are we still there? I don't know.

Throughout all those posts I've asked people to support our troops through donations, and by giving attention to the real sacrifices of our troops and their families and loved ones. I think, more than anything else, I wanted Americans to be engaged in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. My favorite quote in all my post was from Victor Hanson at the National Review,

"...a society that does not fathom who keeps them safe in order that it might stare at Oprah and fixate on Brad and Angelina, eventually will be a society not kept safe to so stare or fixate."

Since not much has changed in the Iraq War, I hope to move on to other subjects, but I will frequently revisit Iraq since I can't get it out of my mind.

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I wrote the above post a couple of days ago. Since then, I've thought some about the recent Maliki moves against Basra militias. I'm not sure what all this means and the press is giving us only shallow coverage, but I think this is really an important event. The Maliki army conducted its first major operation and failed. Al Sadr called a truce and came out an obvious winner, but the Iraqi Parliament is still trying to bar legislators who have militia ties from being seated. The U.S. supported the Iraqi army operations, but Gen. Petraeus indicated that we didn't agree with the operation in the first place. The White House says things are going well in Iraq, but may have to admit that giving Basra to the Brits, who also left, was a mistake.

So many "buts." The Basra region contains sixty percent of Iraq's oil and has the only accesss to the sea. Basra militias are more than the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade. Think of many warlord wannabees jockeying for control of oil fields regardless of whither the Iraqi government goes.

Still Under Construction

I've tried some of the free templates from other sites, but I invariably run into some kind of trouble. I can muck my way around html, but I'm just too old to get enthused about learning xml. So I'm trying another Blogger template. I have a few more mods I want to make before posting.

In the meantime, I want to make note of one veteran-related charity. I've noted before that I regularly contribute to the DAV and other disabled veteran organizations. Over the past couple of years I've donated a few hundred dollars to the "Disabled Veterans for Life Memorial" which hopes to build a memorial in Washington, D.C. This is certainly a goal that I would support.

However, their methods have often angered me. At no time do they give any status or progress information and they ignore any written questions. They push donations by sending (without asking) mostly cheap junk with patriotic themes - I have some pretty nice coffee cups, a couple of really ugly t-shirts, and numerous trivial items probably valued at less than a dollar each.

So I checked them out at a couple of charity watch web sites and found that virtually all of their funds are spent on fund raising. Apparently little or none of the money has yet gone into even planning for the memorial. I am not an expert on charities so I can't say that the DVLM charity is bogus, but I stopped giving. I suggest you check them out before donating.